What is happening
We are at the beginning of a deep revolution,
Climate change is one of the most discussed current topics and the idea that anthropogenic or artificial greenhouse gases (GHG) are among the main causes of this phenomenon is now universally established.
In addition to its devastating effect on the environment, climate change can also cause an increase in migratory flows, poverty and conflicts, in the face of territories that are becoming less and less habitable.
We are scientists and engineers, let the others talk, our task is to resolve the problems.
To stop climate change and resolve and reverse the carbon dioxide trend and the other problems related to them, we need to decarbonize the economy.
This is happening progressively in households and factories; however two main issues need to be resolved NOW:
- Transportation (people and goods) is now the main producer of combustion outputs;
- Energy production needs to become pollution free while doubling the output in the next decade, worldwide.
Transportation (ground, sea, air):
Zero emission requires portable energy. Battery energy density must come close to that of fuels to make compromise free transportation a reality
Transportation (ground, sea, air):
not considering atomic energy, generates exausts except renewables.
Renewables are fairly abundant but unpredicatble and intermittent (with ony one exception).
To extend the use of renewables large electric energy storage is necessary.
Two big problems, one keyword: high energy density, high capacity batteries
Decarbonization: How?
To decarbonize the EU economy, up to 4000 GWh storage capacity will be needed by 2050 for renewables and transport.
1265
GWh
The world 2025 capacity in construction is 1265GWh, currently less than 3 in the EU, 90 in Far East
Renewables
How to use renewables efficiently? Taming the unpredictable
Europe use about 3100 TWh
of electric energy/year,
500 GWh/day
If half of it were to come from renewables, wild fluctuations would be unavoidable
If we needed to store 10% of daily production (say to face heavy storms throughout Europe) the storage capacity needed would be 850 GWh at 100 E/kWh (today’s cost) the investment would be 85 Billion €. Not simple!
10 M cars in the parkings in Europe would total about 850 GWh storage capacity..here is the solution at zero cost.
Everybody needs a vehicle with 500 km range, but very few use that every day.
For example, people who know they will spend the day in office may offer half of their storage capacity to the network, to allow greater use of renewables.
This would allow the system to harvest energy (for example in low consumption hours) which would otherwise be wasted.
The vehicle owbers will be paid for their service.. For example with some free energy.
In this scenario, the economy switches from based on consumption of resources cost to investment cost, while the use of the vehicle is essentially free of charge.
Background
Renewables to grow by factor of six
Source: Fraunhofer IWES, „Geschäftsmodell Energiewende“, 2014
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Electric storage system
What is the status of electric storage systems? A long history of inadequacy is coming to an end.
Typically, technology and market developments are non linear; when the treshold of desire is reached, the market expands all of a sudden.
Are we at the treshold with storage systems? Consider the electric car.
Electric cars are simple, silent realiable. Offer great performance and are super durable. However, to consider switching to an electric car, the typical user would need:
- At least 500 km range
- A quick and easy recharge (max 10 minutes)
- A competitive price
To get 500 km range with a well-designed car 100-120 kWh are needed
- With lead acid, that would have meant 3 tons. With latest generation batteries, 350-400 kg, possible!
- 10 min recharge is technologically possible now.. Working towards 1 minute!
- Cost: according to automotive industry sources, cost equivalence beween IC and electric car needs a battery cost at or below 60 E/kWh
- Right now battery cost is below 100E/kWh and dropping
We are at the treshold for land transport!
Transport drones
At the treshold of a deeper transformation? The development of transport drones becomes possible.
With 300 Wh/kg flying goods for less than 1E/ton km becomes possible.
Resources storage
Are there enough resources to change the world?
All components in the batteries are recycled, never wasted nor consumed.
Considering just the state of the art, to make 1TWh of batteries we need approx:
We are definitely at the onset of a world changing revolution:
-
These numbers are not great (the metals churned by the car industry are an order of magnitude higher)
-
Estimated world reserves of Lithium are over 13 M tons
What are we doing?
The work of Phase: a long history of advance technology developments and limited production runs
1993
1998
2002
2011
2015
2018
2019
Ongoing
The Future
Project Target
Creation of first and only advanced Lithium cell and battery manufacturing facility in Italy or UK
Targeted market: electric mobility for sea, land and air transport, energy storage
Initial market: large storage systems for hybrid ships (10-20 MWh/system)
Cell manufacturing facility (pouch type) + battery integration facility (system control, safety certified BMS and integration)
Initial production capacity 100 MWh/year
Focus technology: NCM 8-1-1 Lithium ion with liquid cooling, improved safety (intrinsic quenching) and regeneration capacity (Phase pat. pend.) target 260 Wh/kg, 1000 cycles+, C4 capable
Next generation in 4-5 years: all solid state battery, intrinsically safe, >400 Wh/kg
Conclusions
Trends to be expected, in some detail
Vehicle high speed charging: 500 kW power level, 900 V Dc: this will require dircet medium voltage A to low voltage DC conversion.
High efficiency, isolated and bidirectional Ac-Dc and Dc-Dc converters will need high frequency, low loss device – this means SiC and GaN.
A step increase in PWM frequency will dictate new low inductance packaging, with filtering inside
The power distribution revoltion will expand the power electronics market by orders of magnitude, this means that:
SiC and GaN will not inherit the Igbt market.. They will have a much larger market!
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